Wednesday, August 14, 2013

What is going on with precious metals vs the stock market?

This is from Ed Freeman of Silver Snowball, and you should take it seriously.
The market is totaly volatile and unpredictable now.
The big boys are getting ready to dump their stocks and buy silver and gold. My guess
is they will do it when the market reaches around 16,000, another record high.

SSB NEWS - August 1, 2013 Silver has rallied a little as expected. What I don't know yet is whether there will be one more test or break of the previous lows or the rally will continue a while longer. Precious metals and the stock markets may move together this month.

Stocks should be putting in the final subdivisions of the rally. Because members are receiving this newsletter throughout the month I sometimes add updates during the month. If you are ever wondering what my current outlook is for any market during the month just send me an email and I'll let you know.  The important thing to understand is stocks are making a major, historic top not a bottom (which was over 4 years ago during March 2009).

I still expect that deflation will accelerate, that interest rates will continue higher and bonds will continue to lose value (though those trends may temporarily correct this month), that stock markets have formed (or are still forming) a major top and will lose most of their value over the next 3 years with mid-2016 still the best guess as to when there could be a major low and entry point for stocks, bonds, real estate and some commodities.  Silver, if it hasn't already,  could bottom before stocks (since it topped two years ahead of stocks which should now catch up over the next two years). And it's insurance in case there is a sudden shift out of US Dollars into a gold-backed currency should one start.

There are always rumors that China continues to buy gold and could at some point start a gold backed currency designed to replace the USD as the world's reserve currency.  While I estimate that this won't happen for 3 to 5 years it may never happen or it may happen anytime.

* * *

I believe the next three years are critical to your economic survival. Our mission at Silver Snowball is to help guide you through the turbulent times and help you accumulate some silver along the way.

* * *

Did you know that the inflation adjusted price of silver, just to equal its prior high of $50 would be over $150 per ounce, based upon government numbers. If you were to use the true rate of inflation, pursuant to John Williams, the price would be over $400 per ounce.

* * *

As quickly as hurricanes and wildfires pop up, a  financial or other crisis could hit unexpectedly at any time it's always good to be prepared. Silver prices could move up significantly anytime due to shortages or just because it becomes a more recognized "asset class" and an alternative to stocks, bonds, cash and real estate.

Some of  our members live in countries where their currencies are being downgraded and are already in rapid decline toward default. That's why it's always better to be early in converting at least some paper currency into silver.  And you just never know when your country will add restrictions that make it harder or impossible to buy silver so that's another reason to get silver while you can if you can.

* * *

THE MARKETSUS Stocks - Down - either right now or soon.  Long term trend points down though mid 2016. The next phase down in stocks will be larger than the 50% 2000 - 2002 decline or the 54% 2007 - 2009 decline. The public is still clueless as they seem not to remember those declines. I expect ALL world stock markets to fall hard. 

US Dollar -  Up. The short term correction expected last month may be over.  Intermediate term the dollar rally may continue long enough to get people convinced that dollars will always be valuable. That will  be the top. Long term trend remains down, as is the case of  all unbacked paper currencies since the beginning of history.  I expect there will be a change in the US Dollar, meaning a revaluation or new version of it, like what tends to happen with all fiat currency from time to time. I believe this will happen before the end of this decade. Whenever it happens I believe silver holders will benefit.  My guess is the world is a few years away from replacing the dollar and meanwhile the dollar has found an intermediate term bottom and will remain the world reserve currency for several more years. The Euro might disappear or be used by fewer countries.

Interest Rates - We may get a brief pause in the trend toward higher rates. Long term trend turned up July 26, 2012 when the 30 year US Bond rate bottomed at 2.44%.  The 30 year US Bond rate just hit 3.75% showing that interest rates are indeed rising despite all the Fed is doing to try to keep rates low.  In the end the markets are the boss.

Bonds - We may get a brief rally in bonds which should be just a correction in the downtrend. Long term Down.  Many bonds, from high yield corporate (junk) to municipal bonds will default during coming credit contraction. The bond bubble will deflate. Bonds lose value as interest rates rise. Investors think they are in safe bonds and funds. They aren't.

Oil - Peaking.

Precious Metals - Short term neutral. Intermediate term correction that began in 2011 may continue a couple more years. Long term trend remains up.

Real Estate - Down.

The Economy - Down. Deflation will resume.  Unemployment is already 30% to 50% in some countries. This will spread. Thousands of banks will fail. There will be widespread social unrest as many government benefits are cut. This trend, which has already begun in some countries will spread to all the rich (in debt) countries. Several long term indicators I follow all point to the year 2016, in fact, the middle of 2016 as the most likely place for stocks to bottom, followed by the economy. If it does happen then 2016 could be the time to get back into traditional things like stocks, bonds, mutual funds if they still exist, real estate, and anything else you want to buy at bargain, 90% off, prices - assuming they can keep the lights on wherever you live. 

* * *

Silver - Get it while you can.

Thank you for all you are doing to help people own silver,


Admin, Silver Snowball - Keeping the Silver coming to You

No comments:

Post a Comment

Place your comment. The moderator will review it after it is published. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason.